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Michael Patrick Leahy

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President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday.

The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.

The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which means the results indicate a statistical tie between Trump and Biden. The poll surveyed voters in the wake the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on September 29. Trump announced that he tested positive for Chinese coronavirus in the early hours of Friday, October 2, the last day of the poll.

With four weeks and two days until the November 3, 2020, general election, the poll results provide encouraging news to the Trump campaign after the announcement early Friday morning that the president had been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus and is currently hospitalized and being treated at Walter Reed Hospital.

The poll released by the same polling firm one month earlier on August 29 showed Trump with a three point lead over Biden, 48 percent to 45 percent, indicating a two point drop for Trump, though Biden’s support has not increased.

The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which does not include the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll among polls included in its average, currently shows Biden with a 7.6 point lead over President Trump in the national popular vote.

An IBD/TIPP Poll released on Friday, which is included in the polling average, shows Biden with a three point lead over Trump in the national popular vote.

A Zogby Poll, released on Saturday, also excluded from the average, shows Biden with a two point lead over Trump in the national popular vote, within that poll’s margin of error.

The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday found that 18 percent of Black voters support Trump, a significant increase from the eight percent who supported him in 2016.

Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham called, “low support and enthusiasm” for Biden among Black voters the “Achilles’ Heel” of his campaign.

“To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best,” Basham told the Sunday Express.

Trump performed well in several key battleground states.

In Florida, Trump leads Biden by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 500 likely voters.

In Minnesota, Trump leads Biden by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 450 likely voters in that state.

In New Hampshire, Trump leads Biden by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent, in the part of the poll conducted among 400 likely voters in that state.

The poll currently projects Trump is on track to win 320 Electoral College votes, compared to Biden’s 218, which is 50 electoral college votes more than the 270 Trump needs to win in 2020 to be re-elected.

At the national level, 61 percent of poll respondents believe Trump will be re-elected, while 39 percent believe he will not.

Thirty-two percent of poll respondents consider law and order the most important issue, followed by 30 percent who say it is jobs and the economy, and 15 percent who say it is the coronavirus pandemic, and another 15 percent who say it is education.

Twelve percent of poll respondents say that Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court makes them more likely to vote for the president, nine percent say it makes them less likely, and 79 percent say it makes no difference.

Eighty-seven percent of Biden supporters said they were “comfortable with relatives, friends, coworkers knowing how you vote,” but only 22 percent of Trump supporters with the same.

Nineteen percent of poll respondents said Trump’s positive coronavirus test made them more likely to vote for the president, while 13 percent said it made them less likely to do so, and 68 percent said it made no difference.

The results of the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll on the question of who won the September 29 presidential debate differed from those of most other polls.

When asked “Who won the TV debate?,” 32 percent of poll respondents said Trump, while 18 percent said Biden. Fifty percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.

Twenty percent of poll respondents said the debate made them more likely to support Trump, while eight percent said it made them more likely to support Biden. Seventy-two percent said it made no difference.

Friday’s IBD/TIPP Poll on that question, for instance, returned different top-line results on the question of “who won,” but found the debate switched more undecided voters to Trump than to Biden:

Registered voters who watched or listened to Tuesday’s debate thought Biden did better, 44%-33%. Independents saw Biden as the winner, 43%-20%. . .

After the debate, 19% of registered voters who watched said they switched their vote, with 11% backing Trump and 8% shifting to Biden. Nearly everyone who said they switched to Trump had voted for him in 2016. Half those who switched to Biden had voted for Clinton in 2016. The others included Trump voters, nonvoters and third-party voters.

The Zogby Poll released on Saturday did not ask which candidate “won” the first 2020 presidential debate.

However, John Zogby, director of the Zogby Poll, said:

Contrary to my own observations, it looks like the President has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization. His 47% performance is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016.

For now, he appears to have consolidated his base of Whites, parents, conservatives, men, and his own party’s voters.

Joe Biden looks as if he is on his way to doing the same with his base. His numbers among Hispanics are respectable but not quite at the 66%-67% he really needs. The same with Blacks. His 86% is better than our last poll but he needs to hit 90%, especially in those key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia. His 60%-35% lead among young voters is about where he needs to be.

Polls after the first presidential debate in 2016 between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump showed that Clinton “won” that debate over Trump by margins of as much as 30 percent.

But those first debate poll results had little impact on the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump defeated Clinton in the Electoral College by 304 electoral college votes to 227 votes (with seven faithless electors), despite losing the popular vote by two points, 46 percent to 48 percent.

Author: Michael Patrick Leahy

Source: Breitbart: Poll: Donald Trump Now Leads Joe Biden in National Popular Vote

Donald Trump dropped two points in a national poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports immediately following the former vice presidents’s announcement of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate.

The Rasmussen Reports poll released on Wednesday shows Biden with a four point lead in the national popular vote, 48 percent to 44 percent. The poll of 2,500 likely voters was conducted between August 12 and August 18, with no polling conducted on August 14 or August 15, and has a margin of error of two percent.

The results represent a two point drop in support for Biden when compared to the six point lead he had over Trump in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted the prior week in August, 49 percent to 43 percent.

Biden named Harris as his running mate on Tuesday, August 11.

Significantly, the Rasmussen Reports poll also concluded, “The new survey finds Biden with 81% of the Democratic vote. Trump has the support of 77% of Republicans, but, for the first time, he leads among voters not affiliated with either major political party.”

The Rasmussen Reports poll released on Wednesday is not the only poll that has shown support for Joe Biden drop after he picked Sen. Harris as his running mate.

As Breitbart News reported earlier this week:

Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national popular vote in the 2020 presidential election has virtually evaporated just days after the former vice president named Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate because of a significant decline in support from black and Hispanic voters, according to a poll released by CNN on Sunday evening.

Ten percent of black and Hispanic voters have changed their support from Biden to Trump in just two months.

This decline in support for Biden and increase in support for Trump among black and Hispanic voters has caused Biden’s lead among registered voters to drop from 14 points — 55 percent to 41 percent — in the same nationwide poll conducted for CNN by SSRS in June, to four percent — 50 percent to 46 percent — in the nationwide poll of 987 registered voters conducted for CNN by SSRS between August 12 and August 15. The poll has a margin of error of four percent, which means the race for president is now a statistical tie.

In contrast to the Rasmussen Reports and CNN/SSRS polls, another poll released on Wednesday found that support for Biden increased after he named Harris to the ticket.

The Hill/HarrisX poll released on Wednesday shows that Biden’s lead over Trump increased from four points in the week prior to Biden’s announcement of his pick of Harris as his running mate to six points in the week after his selection of the senator from California as his running mate. Some of the poll’s responses were obtained on August 11, the day Biden named Harris as his pick:

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 6 percentage points in a new Hill-HarrisX national survey.

Forty-five percent of respondents said they’d vote for Biden on Election Day, while 39 percent said they’d go with Trump.

The results of the Aug. 11-14 survey mark a gain for Biden, who was up 44 percent to 40 percent over Trump in the previous poll, conducted Aug. 8-11.

“The Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted online among 2,823 registered voters . . . [and] has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.84 percentage points.”

An Economist/YouGov poll released on Wednesday found that Biden’s lead over Trump was unchanged at ten percent in the week after the announcement of Harris compared to the week before that announcement.

The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which includes the Rasmussen Reports, CNN/SSRS, Hill/HarrisX, and Economist/YouGov polls, in additional to several others, shows that Biden’s lead over Trump has remained slightly above seven points from August 11, the day he selected Harris as his running mate, and Wednesday August 19.

On August 11, Biden’s lead over Trump in the Real Clear Politics Average of polls was 7.2 percent. On August 19, Biden’s lead is 7.6 percent.

On August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls was 5.5 percent, or 2.1 percent less than Biden’s current lead over the president.

Author: Michael Patrick Leahy

Source: Daily Caller: Rasmussen Poll: Biden’s Lead Over Trump Falls 2 Points After Naming Kamala Harris Running Mate

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